Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Uber continues to deliver strong growth in Gross Bookings and audience, with 21% constant currency Gross Bookings growth in Q4, beating expectations and demonstrating resilience even at scale. The company expects 17% to 21% constant currency Gross Bookings growth in Q1, signaling ongoing momentum.
- Uber's strategic investments in autonomous vehicles position it as a key partner in the future AV ecosystem. With the U.S. AV market estimated at $1 trillion, Uber believes it will be the "indispensable go-to-market partner" for AV players, leveraging its vast network and platform to drive utilization and commercialization.
- Expansion into less dense geographies is unlocking new growth opportunities, with growth in these areas outpacing dense urban regions by 1.5x or more. By investing in supply through driver incentives, opening new cities, and adding products like taxis, Uber is extending its network and driving growth in both Mobility and Delivery segments.
- Delayed Commercialization of Autonomous Vehicles (AVs): Uber acknowledges that while AV technology is advancing, commercialization will take significantly longer than anticipated. The company highlights five critical factors that must align for scale commercialization, including regulatory approvals and cost-effective hardware, which could postpone returns on their AV investments. This prolonged timeline may result in continued expenses without immediate revenue generation from AV deployments.
- Foreign Exchange (FX) Headwinds Impacting Growth: Uber faces significant FX headwinds, particularly from Latin America, affecting top-line growth. The company expects 5.5 percentage points of FX headwind in Q1 2025, up from around 3 points in Q4 2024. This increased pressure may hinder Uber's ability to achieve its gross bookings growth targets, potentially impacting investor confidence.
- Potential Margin Pressure Due to Affordability Push: As Uber emphasizes affordability to drive growth, there is a risk that lower pricing could become a headwind to margins. Analysts express concern that the previous pricing tailwinds are reaching a ceiling, and pushing for affordability may limit margin expansion in the Mobility business. This strategy could challenge Uber's ability to achieve operating leverage while maintaining lower-cost rides for consumers.
| Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
|---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +127% | Total Revenue nearly more than doubled from $9,936 million in Q4 2023 to $22,552 million in Q4 2024, driven by strong growth across segments – largely from increased Gross Bookings and higher trip volumes which built on the previous period’s momentum. |
Mobility Revenue | +25% | Mobility revenue grew from $5,537 million to $6,911 million, reflecting increased trip volumes, geographic expansion, and the introduction of new services that built on prior period performance; this underscores improved consumer demand and market penetration compared to Q4 2023. |
Delivery Revenue | +21% | Delivery revenue increased from $3,119 million to $3,773 million due to higher order volumes and a boost from advertising revenue, following trends established in the previous period; the consistent growth reflects the segment’s capacity to capture additional market share. |
Freight Revenue | Essentially Flat | Freight revenue remained nearly constant at approximately $1,280 million vs. $1,275 million, showing little growth as seen in the prior period, likely due to stabilizing market conditions and limited new investments or orders in the Freight segment. |
United States & Canada Revenue | +20.7% | US & CAN revenue grew from $5,235 million to $6,314 million, mainly driven by higher Mobility and Delivery Gross Bookings and enhanced revenue margins from business model changes, further building on historical performance improvements. |
EMEA Revenue | +26% | Revenue increase from $2,838 million to approximately $3,590 million was driven by increased Gross Bookings, higher trip volumes, and improved revenue margins in both Mobility and Delivery, continuing the expansion trends from Q4 2023. |
Asia Pacific Revenue | +12% | Asia Pacific revenue edged up from $1,185 million to $1,328 million, indicating modest yet positive growth likely due to gradual market penetration and increased demand compared to the previous period. |
Latin America Revenue | +7.5% | Latin America saw a modest jump from $678 million to $727 million, reflecting slower growth possibly linked to economic factors and lower incremental adoption compared to other regions, following the trends seen in Q4 2023. |
Net Income | +380% | Net Income surged dramatically from $1,429 million to $6,883 million, driven by improved operating performance and significant non-operating gains such as unrealized equity investment gains, building on previous period’s lower profitability. |
Operating Income | -88% | Operating Income fell from $652 million to $77 million despite rising revenues, as cost pressures and increased expenses (including higher investments in growth and cost reclassifications) eroded margins compared to the prior period’s tighter cost management. |
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mobility Growth | Q4 2024 | no prior guidance | low 20% range | no prior guidance |
Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Q4 2024 | no prior guidance | flattish sequentially | no prior guidance |
Insurance Costs | Q4 2024 | no prior guidance | continue increasing | no prior guidance |
Advertising Business | Q4 2024 | no prior guidance | 2% of gross bookings | no prior guidance |
Autonomous Vehicles | Q4 2024 | no prior guidance | expansion of partnerships (Vaymo in Austin & Atlanta) | no prior guidance |
Capital Allocation | Q4 2024 | no prior guidance | steadily increase share repurchase | no prior guidance |
Gross Bookings Growth | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | 17% to 21% | no prior guidance |
Adjusted EBITDA Margin | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | approximately 33% at midpoint | no prior guidance |
Insurance Costs | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | high single-digit % (per-trip basis) | no prior guidance |
Gross Bookings Growth | 2024–2026 | no prior guidance | mid- to high-teens CAGR | no prior guidance |
Adjusted EBITDA Growth | 2024–2026 | no prior guidance | high 30s to 40% CAGR | no prior guidance |
| Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Mobility YoY Revenue Growth | Q4 2024 | Low 20% range on a constant currency basis | 24.8% YoY (from 5,537 in Q4 2023To 6,911 in Q4 2024) | Beat |
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Autonomous Vehicle Investment Strategy
Q: How will Uber invest in autonomous assets?
A: Uber is investing aggressively across all parts of its autonomous vehicle (AV) portfolio, including fleet supply and technical partnerships with AV players and OEMs. Fleets now represent about 15% of Uber's inventory. These investments are expected to prepare Uber as autonomous starts to scale, but even with aggressive investment, they're unlikely to impact the 3-year outlook. -
Mobility Profitability and Outlook
Q: What are the trends in Mobility profitability?
A: Uber's Mobility EBITDA margin was 7.8% of gross bookings in Q4, up 30 basis points year-over-year. The company continues to invest in Mobility consistent with its profitability framework, focusing on supply incentives and leveraging operating costs. Mobility growth was 24% on a constant currency basis in Q4, with acceleration in the U.S.. -
Autonomous Vehicle Market Outlook
Q: How does Uber see the AV market evolving globally?
A: Uber estimates the U.S. AV market alone as a $1 trillion opportunity. While currently only a few players are visible in the U.S., Uber expects many more to emerge globally over time. Five factors are needed for scale commercialization: enabled regulations, superhuman safety records, cost-effective hardware, first-rate operations, and a high-utilization network. Uber sees itself as an indispensable partner in achieving these. -
Impact of Foreign Exchange on Guidance
Q: How is FX affecting Uber's guidance?
A: Uber expects FX to be a larger top-line headwind in Q1, with an estimated 5.5 percentage points of headwind compared to 3 points in Q4. About half of Uber's gross bookings come from outside the U.S., with significant exposure in Latin America where currencies have depreciated notably. However, Uber manages to absorb FX impacts in the profit line. -
Insurance Cost Trends
Q: What is the outlook for insurance costs?
A: Uber expects U.S. Mobility's insurance costs to be high single digits on a per-trip basis in 2025, meaningfully lower than the past 2 years. This improvement is due to external factors like a decrease in the CPI for motor vehicle insurance and internal initiatives such as tech innovation and policy work. -
Growth in Less Dense Areas
Q: How is Uber driving growth in less dense areas?
A: Uber is focusing on penetrating less dense, sparser geographies to extend core business growth. Growth in these areas can be 1.5x or more faster than in dense areas. Strategies include investing in supply, opening new cities, and offering products that allow users to pay with price or time, such as Reserve and extended wait times. -
Delivery Business User Behavior
Q: How is supply affecting user behavior in Delivery?
A: Uber has over 1 million active merchants, up 16% year-over-year. Increased selection boosts conversion and brings in new users. Merchant-funded offers to lower prices are at an all-time high, and membership (now 30 million, up 60% year-over-year) delivers discounts to loyal members. These factors contribute to growth in merchants, audience, and frequency. -
Autonomous Vehicle Business Models
Q: What are Uber's AV business models going forward?
A: Initially, Uber may purchase cars directly due to its strong balance sheet, but over time, ownership is expected to shift to fleet partners and financial entities. There's expected to be significant experimentation, but ultimately, the model will become financialized. -
Addressable Market for Autonomous Vehicles
Q: How much of Mobility is addressable by AVs?
A: In the next 5 years, the addressable market for AVs is expected to be about 10% to 15% of the overall marketplace, gradually expanding over the next 15 years or so. Initial penetration will depend on regulation and revenue per mile in markets like the U.S. and Europe. -
Pricing and Margin Outlook
Q: Will increased affordability impact margins?
A: Uber believes it can balance top-line growth and bottom-line growth even as it focuses on affordability. The majority of price increases have been in the U.S., mainly due to passing on insurance costs. Uber remains confident in meeting its 3-year guidance of mid- to high teens top-line growth and 30% to 40% bottom-line growth.
Research analysts covering Uber Technologies.